Foreign Policy Orientation and Electoral Behaviour: Analysing Opinion Polls in Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan
https://doi.org/10.24833/RJWPLN-2023-1-4-31
Abstract
In the post-pandemic years of 2021–2022, the post-Soviet space has entered a stage of decisive transformation, which will test the maturity of the state institutions formed 30 years ago for the region’s countries. The study captures a snapshot of public sentiment in these countries on the eve of this wave of transformation – it is based on a series of large-scale opinion polls carried out in Belarus, Georgia and Kazakhstan, conducted immediately after the most recent elections to the lower houses of parliaments of these countries in the pre-crisis era. The main research question of the sociological study was to identify demographic and geographical patterns in determining the attitude of voters toward the prospects for relations with Russia. Countries with traditionally different strategies of relations with Russia were taken: Belarus is a strategic ally, Kazakhstan is friendly but pursues a multi-vector policy, and Georgia is generally hostile at the level of the political class. The analysis showed that in matters of orientation towards positive relations with Russia, the voters of these countries nevertheless had more in common than they had differences. Based on the results of our analysis, several lines of delimitation can be distinguished. Firstly, the “macro-regional, geopolitical” line runs between Belarus and Kazakhstan, on the one hand, and Georgia, on the other. The second split along the “centre-periphery” line takes place within states. Such a demarcation was singled out by many researchers in relation to Russia; however, we found the same demarcations in Belarus (“Minsk and the rest of the country”), and partly in Georgia and Kazakhstan. Finally, the authors acknowledge possible delimitations along the north–south lines in Georgia (Shestakova 2021: 156); to a certain extent along the north–centre–south line in Kazakhstan (Vinogradov 2020: 177), as a result of territorial differentiation, with Russians living in the northern regions of the country and people are more positively disposed to Russia than those living in the more remote southern regions; and somewhat in Belarus – in those regions that border Russia and Ukraine
Keywords
electoral geography,
post-Soviet space,
Belarus,
Georgia,
Kazakhstan,
sociological survey,
foreign policy orientation
Supporting agencies: Russian Science Foundation funding, Grant No. 19-78-10004 (2019–2024) “Transformations of Electoral Behaviour in the Regions of Foreign Countries Bordering the Russian Federation: A Comparative Spatial Analysis,” implemented by the MGIMO research team of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
About the Authors
I. Yu. Okunev
MGIMO University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
M. N. Shestakova
MGIMO University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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For citations:
Okunev I.Yu., Shestakova M.N. Foreign Policy Orientation and Electoral Behaviour: Analysing Opinion Polls in Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. Russian Journal of World Politics and Law of Nations. 2023;2(1):4-31. https://doi.org/10.24833/RJWPLN-2023-1-4-31
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