Theories of International Relations and Prospects of a Military Alliance Between Russia and China

Abstract

This article seeks to explain why there is no formal military-political alliance between Russia and China. The conclusion of such an agreement would be logical given the expanded cooperation between the two countries, including in the military sphere, which pushes the relationship very close to an alliance, and at the same time exacerbates tensions with the United States. By employing International Relations theory, the author highlights the balance between benefits and costs, which is not conducive to the creation of a formal bloc, the numerous unit-level factors that inhibit such an alliance, coexisting convergent and divergent interests, the asymmetry of the capabilities of the two countries, and the interdependency in their bilateral relations. As a result of analysing the key characteristics of the strategic partnership, the article demonstrates that Russia–China relations conform to the notion of alignment structured around the system-level goal of promoting a multipolar or polycentric world order and a set of common principles. Russia–China relations entered a new stage in their development in 2014, a stage that is characterized by closer political, security and economic cooperation. Against the background of strategic competition with the United States, Russia and China have intensified military cooperation. While the global interests of the two states are much alike, their regional interests frequently overlap or diverge. As a result, the two countries are not interested in being drawn into each other’s conflicts as, despite the deterioration of relations with the West, it remains an important partner for both Russia and China. It is instructive that Moscow and Beijing balance Washington mostly individually, and they are deemed quite capable by their leadership to conduct military action under most likely scenarios falling short of full-scale war. Adding to the potential costs of an alliance is the reduction of foreign policy autonomy. The growing asymmetry of complex power and economic relations, coupled with the modernization of the People's Liberation Army and the gradual reduction of China’s dependence on Russia in military technologies and components predetermine the increasing likelihood that a Russia–China alliance would become more asymmetric in the future, notwithstanding the fact that it would be fairly symmetric at first. This would it turn exacerbate the risks of Russia transforming into a subordinate player in the long term. At present, a strategic partnership makes allows Russia and China to pursue their goals while not bearing the costs of an alliance. However, the deepening strategic confrontation between the United States and China, together with the persistent conflict in US–Russia relations may draw Russia and China closer together.